Monday, June 29, 2009

A Georgian War II?

Reading the statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov makes you think that the man is clearly living in another world than most of us. I long ago decided it was bad for my health to listen to the speeches of this truly haunted man, but sometimes I can’t help it, reminding my self that he after all is the mouthpiece of Putin I & II.

Mr. Lavrovs description of the “emerging new situation in trans Caucasus” is a masterpiece according to the DSM IV diagnostics. In his statement he points out Russia’s efforts to come up with a solution to keep OSCE observers in Georgia, while his soldiers are conducting the military exercise Kavkaz 2009, also INSIDE Georgian territory in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, with 8-10 000 soldiers and 200 tanks. The fact that Russia both manage to block the mandate for OSCE as well as UN observers is a clear evidence for Russia’s good will in the negotiations. Besides that means no witnesses. Russia is still in violation with the ceasefire agreement, and UN agreements signed by Russia on Georgian sovereignty. And now both Lavrov and Rogosin "fear" the Georgian agression and troop build up on the border to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Sure, Georgia is keen to take on Russia which has stationed a huge amount of missiles and tanks inside the rebel republics, inside Georgia. What a monumental lie!

At the moment we are facing the same situation as in July 2008. Then, as I was staying in Tbilisi, and I was convinced that there would be a Russian invasion based on all the garbage Lavrov poured out in the media. (I wrote it on my blog 11. july 2008.) I think the war came as a surprise only for the media and the European politicians. Will there be a second this July or August? I really find it hard to say. One the one side it would be a devastating catastrophe mainly for Russia. (That is thinking like a rational person). A war could by no means be legitimated with lies and propaganda like the first one (the “humanitarian rescue mission” would be to plain even for Russians). It would completely alienate Russia from all its bordering neighbors, and in long term perspectives mean isolation. For Georgia it will mean to be temporarily be drawn back to the middle age, where the Russian cleptocracy resides. But thinking like a true Cremlin hoodlum it might just makes sense: It’s like peing in your pants to maintain some warmth in the winter. It’s the control of Georgian pipelines, and the ability to give Europe and USA a black eye. But then winter will set in, and your pants aren’t really that warm anymore. Especially not in the Caucasus.

So now everyone awaits Obamas mission to Moscow on the 6th of july. Most analysts think that his performance would mean the difference of “invade” or “not invade” Georgia. I really hope Obama will be firm, and won't proceed with the naïve "reset" project. Russia needs US as an enemy in order to keep the current cleptocracy at the power, thus persuing the "reset" project will only serve to project US as weak, and confirm the image Putin want's to create.

12 Comments:

Blogger TGRustavi said...

I hope August 2008 will never repeat in Georgia. Rumor has it that something might happen on July 6th in Georgia, and I hope it will be only PEACE for Georgian people.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009 6:55:00 pm  
Blogger Eistein G. said...

Dear TG Rustavi.
Yes, we all hope that 080808 won't be repeated. As for rumours about July 6th, it is something that stems from an interview with Ilarionov on Rustavi 2. This is the day Obama meets with Medvedev, and I find it less likely that something will happen that day. Maybe later, but not that date. But then who knows what the knuckleheads in Cremlin plans. Another thing to keep in mind is that Russia has got a lot of trouble in tne North Caucasus theese days, and might be less prone to attack Georgia because of that.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009 7:58:00 pm  
Anonymous Peter said...

War is Always the Enemy's Fault

Given all this, a war seems unlikely. What's more probable is that Russia will seek to destabilize Georgia without military action. This saber-rattling may be meant to boost Georgian opposition to Mr. Saakashvili.

Still, Moscow's actions are not always rational. If the pro-war faction believes that the Western response to an assault on Georgia would be weak and half-hearted, it could be emboldened. In a June 25 column on the EJ.ru Web site, Russian journalist Yulia Latynina writes that the probability of the war "depends solely on the Kremlin's capacity to convince itself that it can convince the world that the war is its enemies' fault."

That is why it's essential for the United States and the EU to respond now -- by increasing their non-military presence in Georgia, expressing a strong commitment to Georgian sovereignty, and reminding Russia of the consequences of aggression. Such a statement from President Obama in Moscow would go a long way toward preventing the possibility of another tragedy.

Thursday, July 02, 2009 4:01:00 pm  
Blogger Eistein G. said...

Dear Peter. I think we just have to wait and see. Let's hope for the best.

Saturday, July 04, 2009 11:15:00 pm  
Anonymous Peter said...

If the war begins during Obama’s visit, it is likely to be very beneficial for Putin. For the first time in the new Russian history, the Kremlin will not need to concern itself with the possibility of a negative Western reaction. If he is successful in marginalizing Obama, he may totally ignore Western concerns.

There is one more factor that will compound Putin’s success. The West depends on Russian oil and gas, but does not have any leverage for similarly affecting Russia. In fact, throughout Putin’s reign, Russia has succeeded in organizing the powerful Kremlin lobby in all Western countries, including the United States, in order to strengthen their global position. The large number of pro-Russian journalists who currently report news to the world will no doubt justify every action of the Kremlin.

It is difficult to guess when the new war in Georgia might start. It may begin on Monday, or Tuesday, or a month from now. A great deal depends on secret plans that we can only guess at. The outcome of Obama’s visit may therefore depend on what plans have been made for the time he is in Moscow. Putin has little need or interest in appeasing Obama, and he may well be planning something considerably more harmful. We can only pray that sober people may be found among Putin’s advisers who can prevail against starting a new war, but it is hard to be optimistic.

Sunday, July 05, 2009 2:45:00 am  
Blogger Eistein G. said...

Peter. I think there is one thing to bear in mind: Last summer the Russian tanks stopped before they reached Tbilisi. I don't think that was Putin's plan. There must have been some external pressure impossible to ignore.

Sunday, July 05, 2009 11:19:00 am  
Blogger Khatia said...

Can one be surprised by Russia's actions? I hope there will be no come back of Kremlin bastards in Georgia. I hope, but I'm not sure! :/

Sunday, July 12, 2009 3:13:00 am  
Blogger Eistein G. said...

Dear Khatia. It seems that Obama put weight behind his earlier statements about the souvereignity of Georgia when he met Putin and Medvedev in Moscow. It might have prevented another attack for now. But who knows what will happen eventually. The large troop build ups in the separatistregions is a massive problem. So is the increasingly anti western radical opposition in Georgia.

Sunday, July 12, 2009 8:49:00 pm  
Anonymous Peter said...

The russian goons have lots of helpers in Georgia.
I have great admiration for journalists working in Georgia.

Ragnar Skre is a very brave man.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/article3132414.ece


På spørsmål om han oppfattet mennene som vinningskriminelle eller som noe annet, svarer Skre at han ikke tror mennene var vanlige vinningskriminelle.

- Jeg oppfattet dem som svært disiplinerte. De opptrådte som om de hadde gjort gode forberedelser, sier Skre.
Snakket russisk?

Siden han arbeider i et risikofylt område hadde Skre nettopp vært på et sikkerhetskurs for journalister i England. Der ble han trent til å håndtere nettopp slike farlige situasjoner. Erfaringen fra kurset gjør at han tror dette var noe annet enn et forsøk på bare å stjele noe.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009 2:25:00 am  
Anonymous Peter said...

En liten hilsen fra Peter

Tak til OSCE for resolutionen om nazisme og stalinisme, som betyder at de to ideologier bliver sidestillet og at vi den 23. august hvert år fra nu af mindes de millioner af ofre for disse to forbryderiske tankesæt. Ethvert tænkende menneske må hilse det velkomment, vi har ventet længe på denne resolution,« siger professor i historie og filosofi Igor Tjubajs over telefonen fra Moskva. Han er ingen hvem som helst, men bror til 1990'ernes store reformmand Anatolij Tjubajs.

http://www.information.dk/198222

Tuesday, July 21, 2009 11:06:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Putin is getting desperate. From his perception there is unfinished business in Georgia. Once you fail to do things you are no longer boss in the neighborhood", Saakashvili said in an interview with British newspaper The Times.

Medvedev said that in time "fair and severe punishment" will come to the Georgian leadership.

Thus, Medvedev expressed the long-standing desire of the Russian duumvirate to finish with the pro-Western authorities in Georgia and to settle scores personally with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, considered in Tbilisi.

Openly threatening Georgian authorities, Medvedev said that "he is not equating the current Georgian authorities with the people of Georgia", somehow having forgotten that the current authorities has been elected just by the people of Georgia in the elections, which unlike in Russia were more or less transparent.

According to operative intelligence sources the Kremlin is planning strikes on Tbilisi and on other important administrative and military centers of Georgia.

The main objective is physical removal of President Saakashvili. Objective minimum is the change of power in Georgia.

Murdering of the head of Tskhinvali regime Kokoyty, of which the president of Georgia will be accused, should become the main signal to operation.

According to Moscow's plan Kokoity's murder will give Russia a legitimate right to remove Saakashvili.

According to information obtained from one of the Russian officers in the Khankala, Moscow is planning to assassinate Saakashvili with further appeal to the Georgian leaders.

The text of the ultimatum-appeal entitled "An appeal to responsible political leaders of Georgia and to the Georgian people" has already been prepared.

To "create a responsible power" would be proposed in Kremlin's ultimatum-appeal.
Moscow will announce that it is not going to invade Georgia and occupy it and will offer "friendship and neighbourliness to brotherly Georgian people".

Operative sources are also reporting that Moscow has its own candidate for the presidential power in Georgia and it is not Igor Giorgadze.

Russian military officer, reported about Moscow's plans to unleash a new war in the Caucasus, said that he did so in the hope that the information leakage would "stop Putin's madness, who is concerned about personal revenge to Saakashvili".

Sunday, August 09, 2009 9:42:00 pm  
Blogger Khatia said...

"Murdering of the head of Tskhinvali regime Kokoyty" Is hohoiti mordered?

"Moscow has its own candidate for the presidential power in Georgia and it is not Igor Giorgadze." And who is him?

Monday, August 10, 2009 4:20:00 am  

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