Friday, December 28, 2007

Georgias NATO membership

According to Michail Saakashvili, Georgia will be a NATO member very soon. Ahha, you laugh: Yet another fantasy from the outspoken president..sorry ex-president for now. But is it that far fetched? To understand the situation we need to look at whats happen in Kosovo. Russia says that recognition of Kosovo's independence from Serbia will set a precedent and lead to a landslide of other regions, autonome or not, seeking the same solution. Good examples are Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. So Russia says no, and supports Serbia. EU on the other hand seems to recognise Kosovos claim, and thereby initiating the process in other Abkhazia. So by doing this EU legitimize the same process in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thereby giving Russia carte blanche to act as a co-player for both regions in the process of independence. Oh, but that's nothing new, you might say. And you are right. The only difference is that the Russian operations are now legitime. Thats a BIG difference. So what counter measures might EU and the western countries, together with US have in order to prevent this happening? To me it seems that the only possible solution, if they don't want to loose their influence in the Caucasus and leave Georgia to be a helpless pray for the Russians, is to speed up the NATO membership process in Georgia. To loose Abkhazia with the help of Russia means war, Georgian officials have stated numerous times, wich in it's turn might lead to Russia occupying Georgia. So maybe Misha is not that far out in his predictions? Or maybe he is. The western countries are extremely passive when it comes to the Russian FSB-mafia extortionists in Kreml.


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